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| October 2007 |
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Perfect storm
A perfect storm hit the turf seed industry in 2007, and customers should not be surprised when the bill is due. At the Golf Industry Show in Anaheim last February, Bill Dunn, general manager of Seed Research of Oregon, sounded the alarm when he presented a brief but sobering overview of the challenges facing the seed industry at the company’s annual distributor luncheon. He cautioned that macro factors would cause a drastic spike in seed prices in the coming months. Dunn’s remarks had proved true by the end of this year’s growing season. Efforts to solve America’s energy crisis by increasing ethanol production have already directly affected the grass seed industry. It takes 50,000 acres of corn or canola to support a single alternative fuel refinery. With 128 ethanol bio-refineries in production, 77 under construction and eight expanding, the demand for raw material is skyrocketing. The drive to develop plant-based fuels has moved an enormous number of acres out of wheat production and into corn. As a result, wheat prices have risen worldwide, and many Oregon farmers have chosen to grow wheat rather than turfgrass. The high cost of corn — the price has nearly doubled since 2005 — also has caused cattle ranchers to switch from corn to grain to fatten their cattle. This, in turn, has caused grain prices to rise. Drought in the West and Midwest and this year’s poor harvest also have contributed to higher grain prices. At press time (early September 2007), wheat prices were as high as $8.40 per bushel, making wheat much more lucrative than grass seed, which has not seen significant price increases for several years. The demand for corn, a crop that requires large amounts of nitrogen, also has caused fertilizer shortages and increased agricultural costs (and golf course maintenance costs) around the world. How has grass seed fared amid this upheaval? For many years, the cost of Kentucky bluegrass seed has remained relatively stagnant, but recent conditions have led to “astronomic increases” in the cost of bluegrass seed, says Leah Brilman, Ph.D., director of research and technical services at Seed Research of Oregon. Kentucky bluegrass is a special case because varieties that are high performers on the golf course have a lower seed yield and cost more to produce. The lower-quality Kentucky bluegrasses have a much higher yield, so the best Kentucky bluegrasses will always cost more. Add to these variables the relative scarcity of land available for growing turfgrass and the increased costs of production, and the impact on the price of Kentucky bluegrass has been immediate. This year growers demanded that the turf seed companies guarantee higher prices for their seed. Growers, reluctant to plant new cultivars because the yield is uncertain, have also asked higher prices for taking on the risk of planting new cultivars. Therefore, production of new cultivars will be limited until more is known about these grasses. The forces in play affect all turf species, and customers should expect to see prices increase across the board. To guarantee adequate supplies of seed, the seed companies must raise the amount they pay the farmers, who are seeing their production costs increase and their neighbors being paid record prices for wheat. If increased turf seed prices aren’t bad enough, consider this: The prices of tequila and German beer are expected to rise as Mexico’s agave farmers burn their fields to plant corn and German farmers grow corn instead of barley.
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