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Pundits and Polls

3 posts
  1. Steven Kurta
    Steven Kurta avatar
    2 posts
    11/7/2012 5:11 PM
    So, I know we're all sick of it and some probably don't want to talk about it anymore - that's cool. Just want to share an article I found on how it all shook out for pollsters and prognosticators. I know a lot of prediction is a game played by partisan players who want to energize their base all while accusing their counterparts of the same thing. You never know who's wishful thinking until it's all over.

    Listening to conservative talk radio really gave me an appreciation for how heavily they rely on things like 'internals' and 'externals' of polls. They were mentioned a lot in the run-up to the race.

    What struck me was the news sources that used the widest range of polls from the most varying pollsters did the best and the news groups that used less sources did less well and in some cases were totally wrong.

    Here's one article from the Atlanticwire
    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/grading-pundit-predictions/58768/

    and then two regarding Dick Morris, Fox's go-to Pollster in chief.

    The before take from Foxnews
    http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/oreilly/2012/11/01/dick-morris-romney-will-win-landslide

    And the Mea culpa from Dick's own website:
    http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/#more-10133


    Like I say, everyone's probably sick of it all, but if the disparity in the polls bugged you like it did me - how could they be so wrong? Then you might find all this interesting.



  2. Niemier Rick A
    Niemier Rick A avatar
    11/7/2012 5:11 PM
    Morris is blinded by politics! He would never admit that Obama was probably gonna win, no matter what the numbers suggested.



  3. Steven Kurta
    Steven Kurta avatar
    2 posts
    11/7/2012 6:11 PM
    He does seem like he's got some anger going on there -- which, for the Republicans that were relying on his expertise to make their best guesses and tv programs, kinda made them look like they were using bad information. Now you've got a credibility mess I would think is pretty poisonous to a media outlet.
    You're only as good as your data I guess. Also, a lesson I think a lot of people learned by watching Nate Silver is: don't argue with math.

    Listening to the teeth gnashing going on today in places heard far right cons saying that "they just couldn't believe it" -- "couldn't believe the polls had it all so wrong" Felt bad for them in a way.
    I mean, they were sold something that was endorsed by someone they trusted that ended up having no truth to it. That sucks no matter what side you're on.

    That Dick Morris closed his post with this:

    [quote">We must stop Obama's socialist agenda. That's our job for the next four years. We cannot allow Obama to magnify his narrow victory into a mandate for larger government, bigger spending, and less freedom.

    Kind of blows his cover as being impartial.



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